Eastern Atlantic comes to life , Potential tropical systems 96L and 97L approaching

Preliminaries…

Well it has been a rather busy period for the admin of this blog and it has now become quite a challenge to post regularly but I am hoping to break that lull from this post onwards. The weather has been rather seasonal for the most part for the season so there was not much to write home about. Since the start of the season our side of the Atlantic has been rather quiet since the start of the season but it appears as the Pacific quiets down , the eastern atlantic is sprining into action, this may spell bad news for us small islands who are right in the firing line for these Eastern Atlantic cape verde type systems.Lets take a closer look at the two potential threats on the Horizon..

Invest 97L – A potential rain maker for the eastern caribbean and closer to home.. 

As designated by the NHC ” Invest 97L is an area of interest that can possibly spawn a tropical disturbance in the coming  days. It has shown some organization today but is racing quickly towards the West to West North West which will limit development.Satellite presentations on Friday night show a disorganized system with a low level circulation evident but struggling to keep up the pace with itself due to its rapid forward speed.

Invest 97 Floater, this shows the movement of the system and the co-ordinates of its location.The brighter color means colder cloud tops and more intense thunderstorms.

Where is Invest 97 heading?

This system is racing forward at 20-30 miles per hour towards west to west north west and the main steering as this weak stage is the high pressure system to its north.This high pressure is pushing  the system on a more Westerly Trajectory which may bring it closer than earlier thought to the central islands including St Vincent and the Grenadines.From its current position I expect the heavier showers to stay in the Central to northern islands (i.e. Martinique,Dominica,Guadeloupe etc) , however it is highly likely that we will see the outer convective edges of this system passing through late tomorrow (Saturday) into Sunday morning,clearing out by Sunday Afternoon.

On the most recent available run on 97L most of the reliable computer models now forecast the strong tropical wave to pass somewhere between St Lucia and Guadeloupe.

Invest 96L – The Stronger ,slower one  far east…

This little guy was designated an Invest by the National Hurricane Center as soon as it emerged from the african coast.Unfortunately, satellite coverage of the West Coast of africa is not as frequently updated as that of the rest of the eastern and western atlantic so the images come every thirty minutes or so sometimes with missing frames.That being the case, the last few frames have shown some pretty good organization going on with 96L and it is currenly moving slowly towards the West at a good enough pace to be named earl within the next few days ahead.It has optimal conditions at the moment for further strenthening but that will be short lived as it will soon hit a brick wall call shear (higher uppper level winds) which will more than likely rip it apart if as strong as forecasted.For now 96L looks good but if it makes it to the islands intact I dont expect it to be more than a strong tropical wave or at most tropical depression.

Invest 96L – Floater (Infrared) to the north and north east you can see the Cape Verde Islands located a few hundred miles off the west coast of africa.The last few frames has shown a slight decrease in organization but still stands at a 50% Chance of developing in the coming days

Invest 96L – Where to next?

The system is moving slowly at the moment and that is expected to continue, 96L has lots of open water to chart for another 7 to 8 days before coming anywhere close to land. I dont foresee whatever is left of this system to get to landmas if at all until next Friday or Saturday.The High pressure system at its north will remain strong enough to keep it on a West to West North West path which should bring it close to the islands next week, IF it does strenghten I expect a more poleward motion as it fights the big bad high pressure to its north,stronger systems tend to have a more WNW to NW trajectory when crossing the eastern atlantic by the way.

Latest Computer forecast model runs on 96L keeps it weaker and on a Slightly south of due west motion over the coming days, this may spell trouble if it dips too far south then picks up steam closer to us.

Looking Ahead…

With two systems coming in our general direction, where they go exactly is still uncertain however it is likely that for the short term at least we should feel the presence of 97L late on Saturday into early Sunday.The system should bring fresh to strong breezes with possible wind gusts up to 25 miles per hour particularly from St Lucia upwards, but it is possible that we may be included in that swath as the system broadens out and slows down slightly while passing through.

If 96L remains weak as it is now and continues to be influenced by the big high pressure in the north,I expect it to continue almost due west maybe even south of west at times as the models are indicating,this setup I am worried about since if the system gets much needed fuel of warm waters and low shear we could have a system potentially cruising through the Windward or leeward islands come next week, for now it is a wait and see.

Will try to do another update sometime tonight or tomorrow as it warrants.

Unsettled Weather as Tropical Wave passes

It appears that the tropical wave that has been sitting on top of us over the last 12 hours is now making its presence felt.I woke up this morning to lightning and Thunder under overcast the conditions, there has only been a few showers even though satellite imagery is giving the appearance of much stronger activity. The martinique radar is not 100% this morning but the outer edges of the last frame shows some activity associated with the tropical wave over us.

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Satellite imagery taken approximately 6:45 this morning showing very high clouds with cold cloud tops over SVG.Brighter colors indicate higher cloud tops and possible embedded thunderstorm activity and occasional heavy downpours.






Atl_Tropics

Surface Analysis this morning shows a Tropical Wave sitting right on top of us.

Outlook

This activity should hang around for another few hours brining more showers and occassional thundershowers.I expect this activity to stay with us for the most part of today and the  remaining clouds to hang around well into tonight. Tomorrow we should see drier conditions as the axis of the wave moves away and takes with it the bulk of the shower activity.

Temperatures should remain around 26 Celcius while the heavier clouds are overhead.

Thats all for now folks , have a safe one and dont forget to take along an umbrella!

Bonnie is born & Unsettled weather to our west

In the Tropics….

With the official start of the hurricane season only two days away, the atlantic has already come alive…since January that is. In January we had the formation of Alex which was brief but rather surprising for it being way outside of the usual atlantic hurricane season. On our hands we have Tropical Storm Bonnie , the second system to appear before the start of the season.Bonnie as she is called is a somewhat weak system barely hanging on to her Tropical Storm status at 45mph winds as this post is being written. My concern though for this system is the fact that it is barely moving, if moving at all, weatherunderground.com has it as “nearly stationary’. This is not good news for the South Eastern United States coastline as the main threat from this system is dangerous rip currents and several inches of rain which may result in widespread flooding and damage to property.Bonnie is expected to remain a tropical storm as it slowly drifts into South Carolina.

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The projected path for Bonnie. Image Credit: Weatherundeground.com




Closer to home..

Looking at radar and satellite imagery there appears to be some sort of activity happening to the West of St Vincent and the Grenadines and most of the islands of the eastern caribbean, Satellite imagery indicates these cold top clouds are moving eastwards however radar out of martinique shows the showers within those clouds are barely moving and it is not clear which direction.So with only the satellite imagery indicating a eastward movement , I will say there is a 50% chance they will head into our area in the next 24-36 hours if they are not ripped apart by strong upper level winds currently dominiating the caribbean basin.

Martinique Radar imagery showing the activity West of the islands.This was taken at midnight on May 29th . Image Source : Meteo France Martinique Radar

Martinique Radar imagery showing the activity West of the islands.This was taken at midnight on May 29th . Image Source : Meteo France Martinique Radar

Satellite photo shows the area of heavy showers that is drifted eastwards towards the central islands.

Satellite photo shows the area of heavy showers that is drifted eastwards towards the central islands.

The next question you might have is, what is the weather going to be like tomorrow? Well its a tough one to call with the upper level winds shearing off the cloud tops drifting in our direction, but in the event that they do make it to us we can expect some heavy showers  within the next 24-36 hours.There is a possibility however that the cloud mass may fizzle out by dawn as diurnal minimum where the conditions are optimal for blow up of showers and thunderstorm sets in. In short, be prepared for anything, I would advise that you take an umbrella along with you if you are heading out Sunday.

Until my next update… have a great one !

First post of the season…Active tropical wave moving in…

Guess who’s back?!

Its been a while since I posted here..actually several months and I know I have some avid followers who would message me and ask me what’s up with the weather. These days I am very busy and have little time to keep this site as updated as it should be but I love doing it and informing you of current and future forecast conditions as they come from the official sources.I am grateful that you can take time out of your busy schedule to read my posts so I promise not to make them too long.

Now to the weather….

Over the last week or so the air has been much more moist than in previous weeks which allowed for us to get a few showers to quench the thirst of the plants and animals that depends on it. The brown patches are slowly but surely fading to green as the rainfall increases.We depend heavily on the rainfall to maintain an ample supply of drinking water so we must pay close attention to it.

I expect the rainfall to increase as we press further into the hurricane season or “rainy  season” as it is commonly called.

Current conditions and outlook – Updated at 5PM ECT

Its warm and sunny at the moment with some thick clouds building, there is a strong breeze every now and blowing in.Conditions are expected to change by midday onwards as the tropical wave comes rushing in at 20 miles per hour from the East/East South East.Clouds are already moving into the Grenadines.Speaking of the Grenadines,looks like the concentration of wet and thunder stormy weather will stay to the south of the mainland (at least most of it) and the Grenadines will get most of it, which is good so their water tanks can get replenished.

Latest radar imagery at 5PM today showed the heavy showers over St Vincent and the Grenadines  and moving West to West North West at  a good clip of 20 miles per hour. Forecast : This afternoon, increasing clouds and a 80% chance of showers and even a thunderstorm or two, heaviest of weather is between Grenada,St Vincent and the Grenadines,Barbados and St Lucia .Tomorrow : weather should improve with a much smaller chance of showers and a more drying out effect.

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Martinique Radar imagery at 5 PM today June 15th shows concentration of showers between Barbados,St Vincent and the Grenadines and St Lucia.

I will continue to update this post once the conditions change and if I get an opportunity to do so.

Met Office Press Release for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

2015 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON PRESS RELEASE 28th May 2015

Issued by the Meteorological Office – E T Joshua Airport

The Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st and ends on November 30th each year. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, like the other islands in the Caribbean lies in the hurricane path making us very vulnerable.

The hazards associated with hurricanes are: storm surge, strong winds and torrential rainfall which lead to floods and landslides. Most hurricanes develop from tropical waves which originate from the coast of Africa and propagate across the Atlantic Ocean. Based on a thirty year average, approximately sixty (60) tropical waves cross the Atlantic Ocean and make their way towards the Caribbean every year, while twelve (12) named storms, six (6) hurricanes and three (3) major hurricanes develops.

Every year you hear of the hurricane season outlooks by various scientists who predict how many named storms and hurricanes are expected in the upcoming season.  These forecasts are based on probabilities and the analysis of historical data.  They are intended to provide an estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season, not an exact measure.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) located in the United States in their 27th May release is predicting a below average season with 6 to 11 named storms and 3 to 6 hurricanes of which 0- 2 will become major hurricanes. (That is, of category 3 status and above, or having sustained winds of one hundred and eleven miles per hour (111 mph) or more).

Well known forecasters Dr. William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University are also predicting a below average season. They forecast an Atlantic Hurricane Season with nine (7) named storms and three (3) hurricanes, of which one (1) will become a major hurricane.

These experts cite two reasons for the fewer storms this season:

  • One reason is that an El Nino is in effect this year. In El Nino years the winds in the upper atmosphere are aligned in such a way which makes it difficult for tropical storms to form or survive.
  • The second reason is that the sea surface temperatures are cooler than normal in the Eastern Atlantic where most tropical storms form. Such condition prohibits tropical storm formation since storms get their energy from warm sea surface temperatures.

It is important for residences to remember; it is not how active a season is that matters, but how prepared we are if we are directly impacted by a storm or hurricane. It only takes one storm to strike our island to make it a very bad year, and this can happen in any season.

Additionally, The Meteorological Office will continue to work closely with the Barbados Meteorological Service (the agency responsible for providing forecast for SVG and adjacent waters) and National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) to provide information on any weather system that appears likely to impact St Vincent and the Grenadines. We are also urging persons to listen to the local radio and television stations for information relevant to SVG.

Be prepared this hurricane season!!

Here are the names of the storms for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

*Ana (7th – 10th May 2015)                              Larry
Bill                                                                 Mindy
Claudette                                                       Nicholas
Danny                                                            Odette
Erika                                                               Peter
Fred                                                                Rose
Grace                                                              Sam
Henri                                                             Teresa
Ida                                                                 Victor
Joaquin                                                          Wanda
Kate

* Tropical Storm Ana became the first named tropical storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. It was formed on the 7th May 2015 and produced heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Eastern Coast of the United States.

 

Prepared by,

Mr. Billy Jeffers

Meteorologist

SVG Under a Flood warning – Issued at midday today by local met office

St Vincent and the Grenadines is now under a flood warning as the islands continue to see rainfall associated with a trough system over the island chain.It is expected to generate overcast conditions with showers,sometimes heavy which can cause flooding or land slippages in already saturated soils.

See below the official release from the local met office :

19th September 2014.

HERE IS A FLOOD WARNING FROM ST.VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE E.T.JOSHUA AIRPORT.

A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES FOR THE NEXT

12-24 HOURS.

A flood warning in this case means that flooding may be occurring already.

Cloudy to overcast skies with moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms which are currently affecting the island are associated with the interaction of a tropical wave and a trough system. This activity is expected to persist for the next twelve to twenty four hours.

Due to the already saturated soils and the mountainous nature of the island, some flash-flooding can occur. Persons in areas prone to flooding and landslides are asked to be on the alert.

 

The St Vincent Met Services will continue to monitor these systems and issue updates as necessary.

 

Prepared by; David Burgin.

Please find attached the weather report for the 19th September 2014.

Regards

David Burgin
Meteorological Office.
E.T. Joshua Airport,
Arnos Vale,
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
 
Phone: (784) 458-4477
Fax:      (784) 458-4477

Bertha is born, SVG under Tropical Storm watch, other islands under warning

As disorganized as it may look on satellite it still has been able to catch the eyes of the forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre who a short while ago Invest 93L to Tropical Storm Bertha , our second storm of the 2014 season.The former tropical wave had been struggling with shear and SAL ( dry air) impeding its  generation of cold cloud tops which will aid in development.

Tropical Storm Bertha was declared at 11PM with watches and warnings issued , here is an excerpt from that update :

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W
ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES…
CULEBRA…AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Intense convection building around the center of Tropical Storm Bertha

Intense convection building around the center of Tropical Storm Bertha

The cone showing possible tracks released on first advisory by the NOAA/NHC

How close will it come to us based on forecast positions? Here is what the Stormcarib “How close can it get?” tool says  as at 11:30PM Thursday July 31st 2014

Results for St.Vincent (13.13N, 61.2W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 14.3N, 60.8W or about 82.8 miles (133.3 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 21 hours and 9 minutes from now

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS BY NHC : 

INIT 01/0300Z 12.3N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.5N 61.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 16.1N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 17.9N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 26.8N 75.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 32.0N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

.Will keep you posted …

6PM Update from Met Office and NEMO

NEWS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

6:00 P.M WEATHER UPDATE FROM THE ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.

According to the 6:00 p.m. weather update received from the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Office, the area of low pressure system is centered near 11north… 51 west or about 500 miles east – south east of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

A hurricane hunter aircraft investigating the system this afternoon found showers and thunderstorm accompanying the system have remained fairly persistent and while environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, any additional strengthening could lead to the formation of a tropical depression within the next 12-24 hours.

This system is moving towards the west-north west at 20 mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

On its present track and forecast, the center of the system is expected to pass to the north east of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on Friday afternoon into evening.

Regardless of its development or the location of the center from St. Vincent and the Grenadines, this system has the potential to generate pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds across the island.

The Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Office will continue to monitor the movement and development of this system.

NEMO is urging everyone to continue to monitor their radios for more information as we continue to monitor this system.

The National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) is also reminding the public that we are in the hurricane season and it is very important to be prepared:

• Stock your home with emergency supplies and full your vehicle tank with fuel.
• Trim all overhanging branches and trees.
• Make plans to protect people with special needs and pets.
• Ensure that all drains around the house are cleared of all debris to avoid flooding during heavy rainfall.
• Owners of Businesses are encouraged to review their disaster plan for their business at this time.

• Head of all sub-committees and response agencies are hereby placed on alert. Please continue to monitor the approach of this system.

• Families are encouraged to create a family disaster plan and include all members of the family in this activity so that each member will know what to do in the event that we are impacted.

• Learn about your community’s emergency plans, warning signals, evacuation routes, and emergency shelters.

-END-

Second update from NEMO on Approaching disturbance

12:00 P.M WEATHER UPDATE FROM THE ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE.

According to the 12:00 p.m. weather update received for the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Office, the area of low pressure is centered near 11north… 51 west or about 650 miles east – south east of St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Showers and thunderstorm accompanying the system have remained fairly persistent during the morning, and while environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, any additional strengthening could lead to the formation of a tropical depression within the next 12-24hours.

This system is moving towards the west-north west at 15- 20mph and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

On its present track and forecast, the center of the system is expected to pass to the north east of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on Friday afternoon (Tomorrow).

Regardless of its development or the location of the center from St. Vincent and the Grenadines, this system has the potential to generate pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds across the island.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

NEMO is urging everyone to continue to monitor their radios for more information as we continue to monitor this system.

NEMO Issues release on approaching disturbance

31st July, 2014

NEWS RELEASE FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

NEMO, THROUGH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS MONITORING A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

The National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO), through the Meteorological Services is monitoring a well-defined low pressure system located about 650 miles east of the southern Windward Islands, moving west-north-westward at 15 to 20 mph.

According to information received from the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Office, this system has been producing organized shower and thunderstorm activity during the past several hours. If this activity persists, there can likely be an increase in shower activities and gusty winds into tomorrow.

NEMO is urging everyone to continue to monitor their radios for more information as we continue to monitor this system.

The National Emergency Management Organisation (NEMO) is also reminding the public that we are in the hurricane season and it is very important to be prepared:

  • Stock your home with emergency supplies and full your vehicle tank with fuel.
  • Trim all overhanging branches and trees.
  • Make plans to protect people with special needs and pets.
  • Ensure that all drains around the house are cleared of all debris to avoid flooding during heavy rainfall.
  • Owners of Businesses are encouraged to review their disaster plan for their business at this time.
  • Head of all sub-committees and response agencies are hereby placed on alert. Please continue to monitor the approach of this system.
  • Families are encouraged to create a family disaster plan and include all members of the family in this activity so that each member will know what to do in the event that we are impacted.
  • Learn about your community’s emergency plans, warning signals, evacuation routes, and emergency shelters.

END