Preliminaries…
Well it has been a rather busy period for the admin of this blog and it has now become quite a challenge to post regularly but I am hoping to break that lull from this post onwards. The weather has been rather seasonal for the most part for the season so there was not much to write home about. Since the start of the season our side of the Atlantic has been rather quiet since the start of the season but it appears as the Pacific quiets down , the eastern atlantic is sprining into action, this may spell bad news for us small islands who are right in the firing line for these Eastern Atlantic cape verde type systems.Lets take a closer look at the two potential threats on the Horizon..
Invest 97L – A potential rain maker for the eastern caribbean and closer to home..
As designated by the NHC ” Invest 97L is an area of interest that can possibly spawn a tropical disturbance in the coming days. It has shown some organization today but is racing quickly towards the West to West North West which will limit development.Satellite presentations on Friday night show a disorganized system with a low level circulation evident but struggling to keep up the pace with itself due to its rapid forward speed.
Invest 97 Floater, this shows the movement of the system and the co-ordinates of its location.The brighter color means colder cloud tops and more intense thunderstorms.
Where is Invest 97 heading?
This system is racing forward at 20-30 miles per hour towards west to west north west and the main steering as this weak stage is the high pressure system to its north.This high pressure is pushing the system on a more Westerly Trajectory which may bring it closer than earlier thought to the central islands including St Vincent and the Grenadines.From its current position I expect the heavier showers to stay in the Central to northern islands (i.e. Martinique,Dominica,Guadeloupe etc) , however it is highly likely that we will see the outer convective edges of this system passing through late tomorrow (Saturday) into Sunday morning,clearing out by Sunday Afternoon.
On the most recent available run on 97L most of the reliable computer models now forecast the strong tropical wave to pass somewhere between St Lucia and Guadeloupe.
Invest 96L – The Stronger ,slower one far east…
This little guy was designated an Invest by the National Hurricane Center as soon as it emerged from the african coast.Unfortunately, satellite coverage of the West Coast of africa is not as frequently updated as that of the rest of the eastern and western atlantic so the images come every thirty minutes or so sometimes with missing frames.That being the case, the last few frames have shown some pretty good organization going on with 96L and it is currenly moving slowly towards the West at a good enough pace to be named earl within the next few days ahead.It has optimal conditions at the moment for further strenthening but that will be short lived as it will soon hit a brick wall call shear (higher uppper level winds) which will more than likely rip it apart if as strong as forecasted.For now 96L looks good but if it makes it to the islands intact I dont expect it to be more than a strong tropical wave or at most tropical depression.
Invest 96L – Floater (Infrared) to the north and north east you can see the Cape Verde Islands located a few hundred miles off the west coast of africa.The last few frames has shown a slight decrease in organization but still stands at a 50% Chance of developing in the coming days
Invest 96L – Where to next?
The system is moving slowly at the moment and that is expected to continue, 96L has lots of open water to chart for another 7 to 8 days before coming anywhere close to land. I dont foresee whatever is left of this system to get to landmas if at all until next Friday or Saturday.The High pressure system at its north will remain strong enough to keep it on a West to West North West path which should bring it close to the islands next week, IF it does strenghten I expect a more poleward motion as it fights the big bad high pressure to its north,stronger systems tend to have a more WNW to NW trajectory when crossing the eastern atlantic by the way.
Latest Computer forecast model runs on 96L keeps it weaker and on a Slightly south of due west motion over the coming days, this may spell trouble if it dips too far south then picks up steam closer to us.
Looking Ahead…
With two systems coming in our general direction, where they go exactly is still uncertain however it is likely that for the short term at least we should feel the presence of 97L late on Saturday into early Sunday.The system should bring fresh to strong breezes with possible wind gusts up to 25 miles per hour particularly from St Lucia upwards, but it is possible that we may be included in that swath as the system broadens out and slows down slightly while passing through.
If 96L remains weak as it is now and continues to be influenced by the big high pressure in the north,I expect it to continue almost due west maybe even south of west at times as the models are indicating,this setup I am worried about since if the system gets much needed fuel of warm waters and low shear we could have a system potentially cruising through the Windward or leeward islands come next week, for now it is a wait and see.
Will try to do another update sometime tonight or tomorrow as it warrants.
